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Higher cigarette prices induce smoking cessation among adult smokers.



Research conducted in the United States concluded that higher cigarette prices increase the probability of smoking cessation and decrease the duration of smoking: a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes raises the probability of a cessation attempt by up to 10% and raises the probability of successful cessation by approximately 3.5%. Higher cigarette prices reduce smoking participation even among older, more established smokers. A US study found a significant "left-digit effect" (e.g. price change from US$5.80/pack to US$6.00/pack), suggesting the impact of price on quit attempts is largest for price changes that are most market relevant (salient to consumers).

Moreover, research from the United Kingdom concluded that a 10% increase in cigarette taxes (which will increase the price of cigarettes) results in a 4%-6% decline in the number of years smoked.
A cross-country study from Poland, Russia, and the Ukraine found that a 10% increase in cigarette taxes increased the probability of long-term smoking cessation between 1.6% and 2.3%.

On the other hand, adult smokers in the USA, Canada, Australia, and the UK who engaged in price/tax avoidance behaviors (i.e. trying to pay lower price by not paying all taxes) were 28% less likely to report cessation. Those who utilized multiple price minimization strategies (i.e. looking for ways to lower the purchasing price) were less likely to make quit attempts and to successfully quit smoking.



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Tauras JA, Chaloupka FJ. Determinants of smoking cessation: an analysis of young adult men and women (July 1999). NBER Working Paper Series, Vol. w7262, pp.1999.

Forster M, Jones A. The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data. J R Stat Soc Ser A (Statistics in Society). 2001; 164(3): 517-547.

DeCicca P, McLeod L. Cigarette taxes and older adult smoking: evidence from recent large tax increases. J Health Econ. 2008; 27(4): 918-929.

Ross H, Kostova D, Stoklosa M, Leon M. The impact of cigarette excise taxes on smoking cessation rates from 1994 to 2010 in Poland, Russia, and Ukraine. Nicotine Tob Res. 2014; 16(S1): S37-43.

Licht AS, Hyland AJ, O’Connor RJ, Chaloupka FJ, Borland R, Fong GT, Nargis N, Cummings KM. How do price minimizing behaviors impact smoking cessation? Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2011; 8: 1671-1691.

MacKillop J, Amlung MT, Blackburn A, Murphy JG, Carrigan M, Carpenter MJ, Chaloupka FJ. Left-digit price effects on smoking cessation motivation. Tob Control. 2014; 23: 501–506.

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